Ligue 1 Predictions, Round 14

GFFN | Luke Entwistle

Ligue 1 Predictions, Round 12

Ligue 1 Predictions, Round 11

Ligue 1 Predictions, Round 9

A Record-Breaking Year

If there is one thing often associated with the Paris Saint-Germain forward, it is breaking records. 2023 has been a year of new records for Mbappé with both France and PSG.

Before the start of the year, the newly-appointed France captain stole the headlines and saw records tumble as he netted a hat trick in the 2022 World Cup final against Argentina. The Frenchman became the all-time top goalscorer in World Cup finals, the first player to score a hat trick in the final since Geoff Hurst for England in 1966 and became the first Frenchman to win the Golden Boot at the competition since Just Fontaine in 1958. This wouldn’t be the last time the former Monaco man broke one of Fontaine’s records. Despite a truly astonishing evening, his exploits weren’t enough to bring home a second successive trophy for Les Bleus. 

For club and country, Mbappé also matched the French record tally of goals in a season as he pulled level alongside Fontaine on an impressive total of 53 goals for the 2022/23 season. In 2023, the 24-year-old has also surpassed Edinson Cavani’s record of 138 goals in Ligue 1 to become the club’s all-time top scorer in the French top flight. Mbappé has also taken major strides towards becoming France’s all-time top goalscorer in 2023, moving to 4th in the standings with 43 strikes. 

Renewed Responsibilities

The Bondy-born attacker has taken on lots of responsibility within the calendar year of 2023 and it doesn’t look to have phased him one bit. Following Hugo Lloris’ retirement from international football, France manager Didier Deschamps was left with the task of appointing a new captain to replace the Spurs keeper. Most people believed that Deschamps would appoint Antoine Greizmann due to his importance and experience in a France shirt. However, the former OM manager placed full faith in Mbappé as his captain. 

It is not uncommon for the best players to be named captain due to their ability to lead by example, but the former Monaco attacker has shown that he can do much more than just lead by example for Les Bleus. Despite being an emphatic performer on the pitch, the Frenchman has been a true leader for France. When asked about Mbappé’s role as France’s captain, Deschamps said, “He’s the leader, he is extremely important.”

The PSG attacker has also stepped up his leadership responsibilities for his club following the departures of senior players and Luis Campos’ summer reconstruction of the club which has seen the average age at the Parc des Princes brought down considerably.

Success with Club & Country

As is often expected, Mbappé was once again the protagonist in Ligue 1 as he spearheaded PSG to a 9th Ligue 1 title in 11 seasons and finished as the competition’s top goalscorer with 29 strikes. This is often expected from the Frenchman but not always a given and his imperious scoring form was the real inspiration for PSG’s narrow clenching of the title. Lens were the eventual runners-up to PSG and only finished one point behind Les Parisiens. Mbappé also assisted six goals in the French top flight and formed an impressive partnership with the bookies’ favourite for the Ballon d’Or – Lionel Messi. 

The Bleus captain was also the driving force to France’s success during the last year. As captain, the 24-year-old was decisive in helping Didier Deschamps’ men qualify for EURO 2024 with two games to spare. He has scored 6 goals and assisted a further two in six matches during France’s EURO 2024 qualifying campaign.

Despite France falling at the final hurdle, Mbappé produced one of the most spell-binding performances ever seen from a footballer in the biggest game the sport has to offer during the World Cup final in Qatar. In addition to the forward’s excellence in the final, he was instrumental in Les Bleus reaching a second consecutive final – scoring eight goals and assisting two in seven appearances. A different result in the penalty shootout and we could be talking about Mbappé being the favourite to take home world football’s most prestigious individual award, and perhaps, given that it is an individual and not a collective award, we should be talking of Mbappé as the favourite. 

GFFN | Liam Wraith

GFFN editor-in-chief  Luke Entwistle and GFFN’s  Raphaël Jucobin face off in our Ligue 1 predictions competition. It’s three points for a correct score, two points for a correct score difference, and one point for a correct result. Who will come out on top at the end of the season?

Scores

Raphaël: 33

Luke: 35

Game of the week: OGC Nice v Olympique de Marseille, Saturday 20:00 (UK)

Ligue 1 returns after the international break, and all eyes will be on the Côte d’Azur. Table-toppers AS Monaco and OGC Nice both play at home this weekend, with the latter facing Olympique de Marseille in an all-Italian affair, as Francesco Farioli’s side come up against the Phocéens of Gennaro Gattuso. The latter got his first win since joining the club just before the international break, and he will now be hoping for his side to kick on, and get back towards those European places. Nice, meanwhile, could provisionally go top of Ligue 1, with Monaco playing on Sunday. 

Elsewhere, PSG have the chance to pile more misery on Strasbourg. Patrick Vieira’s side have lost their last two, and in the wake of their last defeat, at home to Nantes, there were the first signs of fan discontent. The Parc des Princes is certainly a difficult place to go if you’re trying to get your season back on track. The round concludes with Lyon hosting Clermont Foot, the bottom and second-from-bottom teams in Ligue 1. Both sides are without a win. Will that change on Sunday night?

Raphaël’s full predictions: 

Le Havre 1-0 Lens

PSG 3-1 Strasbourg

Nice 2-2 Marseille

Lorient 2-3 Rennes

Lille 2-0 Brest

Toulouse 1-2 Reims

Nantes 2-2 Montpellier

Monaco 3-1 Metz

Lyon 2-1 Clermont

Luke’s full predictions: 

Nice 2-1 Marseille 

PSG 4-0 Strasbourg

Lyon 1-0 Clermont Foot

Le Havre 0-2 Lens

Lorient 1-2 Rennes

Lille 1-1 Brest

Toulouse 1-3 Reims

Nantes 2-2 Montpellier

Monaco 3-0 Metz

GFFN | Luke Entwistle

Fast forward to today, Lyon sit second-from-bottom of the Ligue 1 table with three points from eight games, and instead of flirting with Europe’s elite, they are flirting dangerously with relegation. So, what actually is going wrong at the Groupama Stadium? 

Owners infighting

John Textor was announced as Lyon’s new majority shareholder in December 2022, and it was the first time since 1987 that Jean-Michel Aulas had relinquished any control of the club. The relationship between Lyon’s new owner and heralded custodian for the past 36 years looked rosy at the pair’s first press conference. However, things would soon sour. 

Upon his arrival, Textor confirmed that Aulas would remain in place as the club’s president. This would last for less than six months with Aulas stepping down on the 8th of May 2023, but being named “honorary president.” Lyon’s “honorary president” has since launched legal proceedings against Textor and has been outspoken on the American’s impact on the club’s demise. 

This has led to a rather fractious and public spat between the pair developing in the French media. Since stepping down as OL president, Aulas has criticised Textor on multiple occasions for developments since his departure, such as the DNCG restrictions, saying “I was never troubled by the DNCG. I have never had any problem with them in 35 years as president. Up until now, the DNCG has always congratulated us for our management capabilities”. 

Lyon’s CEO Santiago Cucci has also become a key player in the debacle after criticising “what Aulas left” in an interview to which the notorious president replied on Twitter, “A bit of respect please: 76 titles with the teams of our Olympique Lyonnais. I’d love to help you because, with my 9% share of the club, I remain the second [biggest] shareholder of OL Group and I, more than anyone else, have an interest in getting very good results. Go OL.“ Aulas is now suing Textor for defamation and has frozen €14.5m in funds at the club, adding more chaos to the club’s already precarious financial statements.

Whilst all these disputes have taken place off the field at the Groupama Stadium, they have generated a huge amount of noise as OL continue to suffer from the after-effects of Textor’s takeover. The noise off the pitch is certainly an added distraction to the frustrations that Lyon are currently experiencing on the pitch.

A managerial soap opera

Lyon recently appointed former player Fabio Grosso as the club’s new manager. His four predecessors have all at one time or another been embroiled in a fiasco or under immense pressure due to negative results. OL have been unable to find a long-term solution or approach to address their continuous decline.  

Sylvinho was brought into the club by former Lyon sporting director Juninho. He lasted just 11 games and 141 days in charge after one win in nine matches. The Brazilian was then replaced by Rudi Garcia who offered a glimmer of hope when Lyon reached the semi-finals of the Champions League and threatened to challenge for the Ligue 1 title in 2020/21, but this would soon come crashing back down with the now Napoli manager losing the Lyon dressing room and becoming a hated figure among fans of Les Gones. 

Peter Bosz would then follow Garcia into Lyon – a drastic change in style and approach. The Dutch manager, famous for his attacking style of play at Ajax and Leverkusen, was appointed to bring attacking football and a new vision to the club. Bosz endured a rather inconsistent spell in charge and after a continuous string of negative results was sacked. He was replaced by Grosso’s predecessor Laurent Blanc. 

Blanc was arguably the most intriguing and somewhat puzzling appointment of them all – another change in style and approach. The former PSG manager had seen success in Ligue 1 once upon a time but that was long ago and his most recent managerial exploits took place in a rather unsuccessful spell in charge of Qatari side Al-Rayyan. Blanc initially saw success following the 2022 World Cup with his more pragmatic approach. His exploits weren’t enough though as Lyon missed out on Europe for a second consecutive season. 

Blanc was largely criticised by fans for Lyon’s preseason form, fearing the worst that this would translate into their start of the season. This became a sudden reality with Lyon looking lifeless and lacking identity, and Blanc himself at his own admission believed he couldn’t solve it. When asked what had to be changed, the former OL manager replied “You have to change the manager“. After a winless start to the season, Textor did just that. 

Continuous rotation in those in charge at the club, all with clashing or different philosophies has created a cycle of lacklustre tactics and underwhelming results. Lyon have had four managers in three seasons and with all the drama and media attention, being a manager at Lyon has become akin to a soap opera.  

Transfer Restrictions 

John Textor’s first summer transfer window as Lyon owner was hampered by transfer restrictions placed on the club by the French football financial watchdog, the DNCG. The DNCG monitored all of Lyon’s transfer and wage budget activity during the summer, forcing the club to sell key assets and preventing them from injecting major investment into their playing squad. 

These transfer restrictions are one of the major reasons behind the public feud between Textor and Aulas. Aulas promised player sales worth €112m to the DNCG, whereas the club only generated €30m. In addition to failing to qualify for European football, OL were unable to prove their financial stability despite Textor’s best efforts to sell OL Reign and OL Féminin. 

This forced the club to sell stars from their academy – Bradley Barcola to PSG and Castello Lukeba to Leipzig. These two transfers alone have immeasurably weakened Lyon and left the club resorting to bargain-hunting and unorthodox transfer tactics until the end of the window. Jake O’Brien arrived from Crystal Palace for €1m to replace Lukeba and Textor had to use sister club Molenbeek to purchase Ernest Nuamah for a club record fee before loaning him to Lyon with an obligation to buy. This transfer is now under FIFA investigation. 

Despite John Textor claiming, “in January we will have no governance limits on our ability to strengthen the team”, Lyon’s summer transfer window could yet come back and cause them further problems with this impending FIFA investigation. 

Being forced to sell academy stars and being unable to replace them adequately has seen Lyon’s squad get weaker and become imbalanced. 

Are the players ready for a relegation battle?

“We have to fight to stay up” – Fabio Grosso 

Fabio Grosso himself admitted that Lyon had a fight on their hands to stay in Ligue 1, after their collapse against Lorient which saw them surrender a 3-1 lead to draw 3-3. This admission showed clearly that OL’s coach was prepared for a relegation battle, but the question is are the players? 

Lyon’s players have looked tired, bereft of ideas and confidence thus far this season. Whether this is because of the sale of key players, managerial instability or the overall weakening of the team, there has been a fragility and softness about performances which have made the team predictable and ultimately easy to beat.

These performances have seen the players receive a somewhat humiliating and stern dressing down from the club’s ultra group The Bad Gones. The group’s leader accused the players of “smearing” the honour of wearing the shirt and not “giving everything” which saw the club’s issues surface in a viral video. 

The performances so far have lacked the intensity and confidence of a team that looks ready to give everything to retain the top-flight status of one of French football’s biggest institutions. Bordeaux and Saint-Étienne before them were both considered ‘too big to go down’, but both suffered relegation and are now languishing in Ligue 2. 

It may not seem like a real threat yet, but if Lyon are unable to address some of these critical issues, they are at serious risk of becoming France’s next fallen giant. 

GFFN | Liam Wraith

GFFN editor-in-chief  Luke Entwistle and GFFN’s  Raphaël Jucobin face off in our Ligue 1 predictions competition. It’s three points for a correct score, two points for a correct score difference, and one point for a correct result. Who will come out on top at the end of the season?

Scores

Raphaël: 30

Luke: 33

Game of the week: Stade Rennais v Paris Saint-Germain, Sunday 19:45 (UK)

Reims could take top spot in Ligue 1 when they face current leaders Monaco on Saturday night. Les Monégasques didn’t exactly struggle in the absence of Takumi Minamino and Aleksandr Golovin with Monaco beating Marseille 3-2. However, the duo, as well as Eliesse Ben Seghir, who is yet to feature this season, return against Reims. 

Elsewhere, Lens face Lille in the Derby du Nord. Neither side has been on top form in the league so far this season. However, Lens will be buoyed by their victory over Arsenal. Lille only returned with a point from their trip to the Faroe Islands, however, with Paulo Fonseca heavily rotating his side for the Europa Conference League match, he will at least be able to count on the freshness of players such as Jonathan David in what will be a difficult fixture regardless. 

Finally, PSG face Rennes at the Roazhon Park. Neither side comes into the match brimming with confidence after their respective European losses in midweek. Les Parisiens’ league form hasn’t been spectacular either. Luis Enrique’s side sit fifth, two points behind Monaco, and so they’ll be looking to close that gap. 

Raphaël’s full predictions: 

Strasbourg 2-0 Nantes

Metz 0-2 Nice

Reims 2-2 Monaco

Marseille 3-1 Le Havre

Lyon 2-1 Lorient

Brest 1-2 Toulouse

Montpellier 3-0 Clermont

Lens 2-2 Lille

Rennes 2-2 PSG

Luke’s full predictions: 

Reims 1-1 Monaco 

Lens 2-1 Lille

Rennes 0-0 PSG

Strasbourg 1-1 Nantes

Metz 0-2 Nice 

Marseille 3-1 Le Havre 

Lyon 1-0 Lorient 

Brest 2-1 Toulouse 

Montpellier 2-0 Clermont Foot

GFFN | Luke Entwistle

GFFN editor-in-chief  Luke Entwistle and GFFN’s  Raphaël Jucobin face off in our Ligue 1 predictions competition. It’s three points for a correct score, two points for a correct score difference, and one point for a correct result. Who will come out on top at the end of the season?

Scores

Raphaël: 28

Luke: 26

Game of the week: AS Monaco v Olympique de Marseille, Saturday 20:00 (UK)

There are few certainties going into Monaco’s match against Marseille. Both teams are looking to bounce back after defeats last week. Marseille have a new manager in the form of Gennaro Gattuso, whilst Monaco must deal with a number of key absentees. Aleksandr Golovin is suspended, Caio Henrique looks set to potentially miss the entirety of the season, and Takumi Minamino is also a doubt. Adi Hütter has thus far been unwilling to switch up his system, but his hand may be forced. Elsewhere, PSG should have no difficulties against Clermont Foot, even if they are without Kylian Mbappé, who may be rested ahead of their Champions League tie against Newcastle United in midweek. Finally, Nice face Brest as first meets second at the Allianz Riviera. Eric Roy’s side will provide a much different test for Francesco Farioli’s men. A win would take Nice top, but it will likely be difficult to obtain.

Raphaël’s full predictions: 

Strasbourg 2-2 Lens

Clermont 1-3 PSG

Monaco 2-2 Marseille

Reims 2-1 Lyon

Le Havre 2-1 Lille

Toulouse 2-2 Metz

Nice 2-0 Brest

Lorient 3-3 Montpellier

Rennes 2-1 Nantes

Luke’s full predictions: 

Monaco 1-0 Marseille

Nice 1-0 Brest

Rennes 2-1 Nantes

Strasbourg 0-1 Lens

Clermont Foot 0-3 PSG

Reims 2-1 Lyon

Le Havre 1-1 Lille

Toulouse 0-0 Metz

Lorient 1-1 Montpellier

GFFN | Luke Entwistle

It has been two weeks since the announcement that the sale of the Merseyside club was agreed between Farhad Moshiri and 777 Partners. To the avid Get French Football News reader, this name is rather familiar.

The firm already holds stakes in eight football clubs – including Genoa, Sevilla, Vasco Da Gama, Standard Liège, Hertha Berlin, Melbourne Victory, and French third tier side Red Star FC. Not only does the firm have investments in football, but also in Basketball – as owners of London Lions, and 45% of the British Basketball League itself.

The rumoured bid for Everton saw English media spring into life to try and ascertain the motives behind 777’s mass acquisition strategy. It followed an explosive article from Norwegian outlet Josimar, who revealed that the Miami-based firm is embroiled in several court battles in the US involving predatory lending, fraud, and the failure to pay bills totalling hundreds of thousands of US dollars. This is not to mention charges of cocaine-trafficking levied against co-founder Josh Wander, something that the American later said was a “stupid college thing.” 

Reports from The Telegraph also revealed that Premier League is facing pressure from concerned senior figures in the UK Government over the sale, with sources expressing doubt over the suitability of 777. But what is the outlook currently in France?

Is it still “777 Not Welcome” in Saint-Ouen?

At the time of writing, Red Star sit top of the French third tier, on a run of winning their previous five matches with manager Habib Beye after missing out of promotion by just two points in the previous campaign. Off the pitch, the club is in a period of transition, with the old terraces of Stade Bauer being renovated so that the side can compete in Ligue 2 if the chance swings by once more.

In April 2022, news of takeover talks of Red Star were met with protest from the club’s fans, leading to the abandonment of a third tier fixture. As the lowest ranked club in the 777 ‘family’, fears arised over the multi-club model’s suitability for a working-class club in the region of Seine-Saint-Denis, the region with the most poverty in mainland France.

In the Parisian suburb of Saint-Ouen, the fears among supporters surrounding 777 Partners still remain. One French proverb could perhaps summarise it all : the relative good performance on-pitch at the club is the tree that hides the forest of 777 woes. This is to say that whilst the American ownership has been careful in managing (what was) their most contested asset, it doesn’t mean that ideological concerns aren’t still present.

And it’s not just a question of ideology for Red Star fans. 777 boss Josh Wander promised in June 2022 that the firm “Will always operate according to what is best for Red Star FC,” before announcing a freeze on ticket prices during the reconstruction of Stade Bauer. It only took a year until a real-terms price increase for season ticket holders was announced, but then retracted under pressure from the club’s fans. It was an increase that saw prices rise to a rate higher than some Ligue 1 clubs.

“We’re angry for several reasons,” said the spokesperson of the club’s fan group to BFM Île-de-France on the matter “For cancelling season tickets and increasing their prices when nothing justifies it –  Red Star have stayed in the same division for five years. It’s an 83% increase even though the club have been exonerated from paying rent on the stadium until 2025 when reconstruction has finished. […] To go back on a promise in a years’ time is something worrying for the future.”

The club nonetheless ended up reviewing its ticketing policy for season ticket holders after meeting with local authorities and supporter representatives. A year of 777 ownership has seen sustained contestation from a section of Red Star fans, balancing against the need to support their side’s promotion push.

The public defence of 777 from Red Star

If there is a sense of cognitive dissonance created by the club’s on-pitch resurgence, it has been a useful tool to publicly defend the American ownership of the club. Manager Habib Beye and Sporting Director Reda Hammache spoke at length on Le Foot des 5 during the summer about various topics, including the nature of the club’s relationship to 777 Partners.

“Josh Wander or his associates have been present for 50% of the matches either home or away,” said the former Newcastle man Beye. “They are multi-club owners with people who are present at the club.” 

Hammache revealed “Every day I have meetings with the other sporting directors where we talk about business, how we can work on exchanging experience, skills, and knowledge.” The pair said that the Americans have shared expertise in data and reporting, with a new data department at the club made of five analysts.

However, they recognised the nature of the multi-club model that if a player was performing exceptionally for Red Star, they could be subject to being poached by other clubs in the 777 group. “If one day we have a striker who is playing well for us and is a top talent – a club like Standard may say that they want him. We’ll discuss but it will be an exchange rather than simply giving them away.” 

The red flags away from Red Star

American multi-club investment is as rife in French football as it is becoming in the Premier League: Strasbourg’s takeover by Chelsea owner Todd Boehly’s Clearlake Capital adds to a long list of US investors including John Textor’s Eagle Football Holdings at Olympique Lyonnais, Bill Foley at FC Lorient, and Redbird Capital Partners in Toulouse FC. 

“Is there anyone in the world that’s been more serious about buying football clubs in history than Josh Wander?” These were the words of Wander himself in an interview with the Financial Times when seeming to push for the ‘hyper commercialisation’ of football.

These were the words of a man who was recently elected to the powerful board of the European club association (ECA) as a representative of Standard Liège. However, “No money, no ambition” was the message from the Belgian club’s fans who recently protested against the club’s ownership. Relegated Hertha Berlin has also seen unrest, with fans envious of the European dreams being realised by their cross-city rivals Union.

A quick look elsewhere and more red flags appear. 777’s funding of UK Basketball was reportedly in doubt, according to Josimar. Meanwhile, Ex-Sky Sports NBA journalist Stuart Hodge reported that London Lions were being investigated by the BBL to ascertain the suitability of 777’s ownership. Meanwhile, The Times chief sports reporter Martyn Ziegler revealed leaked emails which shows that Everton’s potential buyers have put the BBL at risk of immediate administration after cash flow problems caused by delayed payments.

Whilst the dominoes are yet to fall for 777 Partners, the red flags are seemingly appearing everywhere. If their acquisition of Everton is waved through by the Premier League, this trend will be set to continue with one of English football’s most historic and respected football clubs now at risk.

GFFN | George Boxall